S&P Global Ratings revised Kazakhstan’s credit rating outlook from stable to positive, affirming the sovereign rating at BBB-.
According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the positive outlook reflects favorable progress in liberalizing and diversifying the economy, improving public administration, and reducing the budget deficit.
The S&P noted moderate external debt and a stable level of international reserves.
Among the positive outlook factors, the agency highlighted the strengthening of the monetary policy framework and the National Bank’s measures to curb rising inflation, as well as a reduction in quasi-fiscal activities.
Analysts noted the banking sector’s resilience to geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, with adequate capital buffers and strong liquidity. Consumer lending is expected to decline amid tighter macroprudential measures.
The agency projected real GDP growth at 5.5% in 2025, moderating to approximately 4% between 2026 and 2028. Continued implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan is expected to support economic diversification and boost non-oil revenues.
According to S&P, institutional and structural reforms, including the adoption of new budget and tax codes in 2025 and tighter fiscal rules, are also expected to strengthen fiscal consolidation and maintain substantial liquid asset buffers.
Reference: https://astanatimes.com/2025/08/sp-global-ratings-revises-kazakhstans-outlook-to-positive
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